/The future of humanity: can we avert disaster?

The future of humanity: can we avert disaster?

Summary: Climate change and artificial intelligence pose substantial — and possibly existential — problems for humanity to solve. Can we?

Original author and publication date: Adam Frank – June 24, 2021

Futurizonte Editor’s Note: is the “disaster” future the only future we are moving towards? Are there any alternative futures?

From the article:

Does humanity have a chance for a better future, or are we just unable to stop ourselves from driving off a cliff? This was the question that came to me as I participated in a conference entitled The Future of Humanity hosted by Marcelo’s Institute for Cross-Disciplinary Engagement. The conference hosted an array of remarkable speakers, some of whom were hopeful about our chances and some less so. But when it came to the dangers facing our project of civilization, two themes appeared in almost everyone’s talks.

And here’s the key aspect that unifies those dangers: we are doing it to ourselves.

The problem of climate change
The first existential crisis that was discussed was, as you might guess, climate change. Bill McKibben, the journalist and now committed activist who first began documenting the climate crisis as far back as the 1980s, gave us a history of humanity’s inability to marshal action even in the face of mounting scientific evidence. He spoke of the massive, well-funded disinformation efforts paid for by the fossil fuel industry to keep that action from being taken because it would hurt their bottom lines.

It’s not like some alien threat has arrived and will use a mega-laser to drive the Earth’s climate into a new and dangerous state. Nope, it’s just us — flying around, using plastic bottles, and keeping our houses toasty in the winter.

The problem of artificial intelligence
Another concern was over artificial intelligence. Here the concern was not so much existential. By this, I mean the speakers were not fearful that some computer was going to wake up into consciousness and decide that the human race needed to be enslaved. Instead, the danger was more subtle but no less potent. Susan Halpern, also one of our greatest non-fiction writers, gave an insightful talk that focused on the artificial aspect of artificial intelligence. Walking us through numerous examples of how “brittle” machine learning algorithms at the heart of modern AI systems are, Halpern was able to pinpoint how these systems are not intelligent at all but carry all the biases of their makers (often unconscious ones). For example, facial recognition algorithms can have a hard time differentiating the faces of women of color, most likely because the “training data sets” the algorithms were taught were not representative of these human beings. But because these machines supposedly rely on data and “data don’t lie,” these systems get deployed into everything from making decisions about justice to making decisions about who gets insurance. And these are decisions that can have profound effects on people’s lives.

Then there was the general trend of AI being deployed in the service of both surveillance capitalism and the surveillance state. In the former, your behavior is always being watched and used against you in terms of swaying your purchasing decisions; in the latter, you are always being watched by those in power. Yikes!

READ the full article here